How on-chain prediction markets work and settle.
Prediction Markets — the full guide to this subject.
The Gnosis Conditional Token Framework (CTF) is the infrastructure beneath many on-chain prediction markets...
A binary prediction market lets you bet on a yes-or-no outcome. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by Septe...
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users trade binary outcomes on real-world events. This wal...
Collateral custody exists on a spectrum. At one end, fully non-custodial systems hold user funds entirely i...
Any prediction market platform that allows anyone to create a market must solve a basic problem: spam. A us...
The oracle submits wrong data. This is the nightmare scenario for every prediction market participant. It h...
The most serious risk in any on-chain prediction market is a smart contract exploit that drains the market'...
A YES share trading at 0.63 USDC *implies* a 63% probability. That is the simplest version of the relations...
A prediction market needs a way to settle. Someone must report what actually happened. That job falls to or...
Dispute resolution is the weakest link in any prediction market. A market is only as trustworthy as the mec...
If you trade on prediction markets, the stablecoin you hold as collateral is not a neutral choice. It deter...
The Gnosis Conditional Token Framework (CTF) is the infrastructure beneath many on-chain prediction markets. Polymarket uses it. So do several smaller platforms. The CTF turns ambiguous real-world events into tradeable tokens that can be split, merged, and settled on-chain.
Prediction markets let people trade shares in the outcome of future events - elections, sports championships, crypto protocol upgrades, even whether a specific temperature record will be broken. On-chain prediction markets encode those shares as digital tokens, resolve them against real-world data,
A binary prediction market lets you bet on a yes-or-no outcome. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by September? Yes or no. Will a specific candidate win the election? Yes or no. Each outcome is represented by its own token, and the price of that token is meant to reflect the market’s estimate of th
Polymarket is a prediction market platform where users trade binary outcomes on real-world events. This walkthrough covers the practical steps from wallet setup to withdrawal, assuming you are using MetaMask on the Polygon network.
Collateral custody exists on a spectrum. At one end, fully non-custodial systems hold user funds entirely in smart contracts. At the other, fully custodial platforms control everything - wallets, funds, and settlement. Between them sits a hybrid model, and Polymarket is the clearest example.
Any prediction market platform that allows anyone to create a market must solve a basic problem: spam. A user could create dozens of markets with vague, duplicated, or unverifiable questions. Without a cost barrier, the platform becomes unusable. Bonds and validity deposits are the economic answer.
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Your trade happens inside the exchange's own ledger. Nothing touches the blockchain until you withdraw.
You swap from your own wallet. The transaction settles on the chain and you pay its fee.
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